October Tech Round-Up: Your Software Is Thinking. That’ll Be Extra.
Dear reader,
Software has learnt to think. Naturally, it has also learnt to charge. This month, we follow the money behind AI’s productivity promises.
Enjoy, from all of us at North Ridge Partners.
Original Thinking From North Ridge Partners
Bigger invoices don’t necessarily mean better businesses. We ask founders, customers, and investors what buyers will stomach, how much the machines cost to run, and what’s left for shareholders. Read Your Software Is Thinking. That’ll Be Extra.
Short On Time? Hit Play
Marge Inn meets Bill Shock. It was never going to be a quiet conversation. Our AI hosts explore three views of the same invoice: software companies want higher revenues, customers want their money’s worth, and investors would like some profit left after the machines have been paid.
Click here or on the banner below to listen. Enjoy.
Techtonic Shifts
Anthropic IPO slips into November as Claude owner chases US$2.0tn valuation.
As Big Tech prepares for the arrival of agentic commerce, Amazon blocks Meta’s Muse. Privacy advocates have their own concerns.
Safety concerns scupper ChatGPT release as Australian government investigates Medicare breach. Meanwhile, Gemini AI has also broken loose.
Asia Pacific Tech News
Australia’s biggest IPO since Telstra unravels spectacularly, with Firmus abandoning its ASX debut after investors balk at A$44.0bn valuation.
A US$1.5bn deal for control of Atome would expand Grab’s lending reach across Southeast Asia as regulators tighten oversight of instalment credit.
US government pulls the rug on visas for Indian tech workers. Microsoft, Adobe, and a clutch of big Indian professional services firms are in the frame.
Software & AI
Hits and Misses: Off-cycle results roll in. Oracle: Q1 revenue US$19.3bn, +30%; operating profit $6.7bn, +57%, helped by lower restructuring and amortisation charges. Micron: revenue $54.2bn, +379%; operating profit $43.8bn versus $3.7bn. Adobe: revenue $6.8bn, +13%; operating profit $2.4bn, +8%. Paychex: revenue $1.6bn, +6%; operating profit $619m, +14%, helped by lower acquisition-related costs. ServiceTitan: revenue $293m, +21%; operating loss $28m versus a $35m loss.
Two labs, one bill. Anthropic's leaked prospectus shows $4.6bn 2025 revenue, an $8.1bn operating loss, and $518.0bn of planned compute spend over the next decade, ~80% locked in, before a targeted $2.0tn-plus November listing; OpenAI seeks $30.0bn at $1.4tn, IPO pushed into 2027.
Agents of chaos. Rogue-agent incidents were met with a White House self-regulation accord, an FTC probe of Anthropic, OpenAI, and others, and a first-of-its-kind rogue-agent liability suit. Governance is now a board-level risk.
Chips off the old block. Amazon wants to park ~$8.0bn of Nvidia chips in a debt-funded SPV offering up to 10% equity, then lease them back; AI capex goes asset-light.
Aerospace & Defence Tech
Hits and Misses: Revenue rose; profits did not. AeroVironment fiscal Q1: revenue US$481m, +6%; adjusted EBITDA $53m, -6%; record funded backlog $1.5bn, +37%. DroneShield H1: revenue A$126m, +74%; underlying EBITDA loss $12m versus $8m profit; FY26 committed revenue $240m, +36%. Austal FY26: revenue $2.0bn, +11%; EBIT loss $125m versus $113m profit, after a non-cash provision on onerous US contracts; order book $16.5bn, +26%.
A US$500m door opens. DroneShield won a three-year US counter-drone procurement vehicle with a $500m ceiling. No orders are guaranteed, but the Australian company now has a fast lane into US homeland-defence spending.
Anduril goes heavy industrial. Anduril plans to invest US$3.7bn in the Arsenal-2 shipyard, expected to be operational by decade-end. A US Navy contract worth up to $2.9bn to manufacture Virginia-class submarine components puts a venture-backed defence company inside the AUKUS supply chain.
Autonomy gets a four-star command. The Pentagon plans a dedicated four-star command for unmanned and autonomous warfare by 1 October 2027, with enabling legislation still required from Congress. If established, it would consolidate scattered programmes into a single force-wide institution.
Fintech
Hits and Misses: Scale builds; legacy rebuilds. Adyen H1 2026: net revenue €1.3bn, +19%; EBITDA €641m, +18%. FIS: Q2 revenue US$3.4bn, +29% reported (+5% pro forma); adjusted EBITDA $1.4bn, +35% reported (+7% pro forma), boosted by its Total Issuing Solutions acquisition. Fiserv: revenue $5.3bn, -4%; adjusted operating income $1.6bn, -23%.
Grab skips the queue. Grab agrees to acquire a 60% stake in Atome Financial for $1.5bn, adding 25 million cumulative transacted users and a $1.0bn gross loan portfolio across five Southeast Asian markets. Building consumer lending from scratch takes years. Grab chose the faster route.
The Philippines gets its moment. GCash parent Mynt prices at ₱6.60 per share, potentially raising up to US$1.0bn in the largest IPO in Philippine history, listing on the PSE on 20 October. At 90 million registered users, one of Southeast Asia's largest fintechs is finally heading for the public markets.
Circle buys its pipes. Circle agrees to acquire Singapore-based Tazapay for $400m in stock, adding $25.0bn in annualised payment volume and payout rails across 100+ markets. With 60% of Tazapay's volume already on stablecoins, Circle is no longer just issuing dollars; it is moving them.
Travel Tech
Hits and Misses: Oil crisis? What crisis? Trip.com Q2 2026: net revenue US$2.3bn, +6%; net loss $361m versus ~$730m profit a year ago on the SAMR penalty. eDreams ODIGEO: Q1 FY27 revenue margin €165.5m, -4%; Cash EBITDA €23.0m, −41%. Navan: Q2 FY27 revenue $232.8m, +35%; GBV ~$3.0bn, +45%; FY revenue guide raised to $927–933m. EBITDA $140–148m (from $830–860m / $130–140m).
The $10.0bn personal agent is mostly a travel agent. Instinct's $1.0bn Series C landed only four weeks after its $250m Series B. Founder says travel is already half the agent's volume, at $500m.
Expedia bets on a swarm, not one bot to rule them all. Expedia signs up for s Muse, booking flights through Duffel and hotels through Expedia. Early reports are promising.
Booking's Kayak duo is back - with a bot called Lola and a membership card. Lola books travel, dining, events and experiences with paid membership tiers, commission rebates, and TeN concierge access. Fogel says the agent is the easy part; trust and payments are the moat.
Stuff We Found Interesting
So, we are all going to die. AI researchers fear losing control as models help build their successors.
As quantum computing edges closer to commercial deployment, the financial sector prepares for new levels of cyber risk.
Putting AI on wheels and legs raises the stakes for Nvidia’s next growth engine: keeping robotaxis and humanoid workers from harming people.
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© North Ridge Partners 2026
Contact us here.
© North Ridge Partners 2026
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